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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 49

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(8:48) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to BAL 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-16-V.Mayle.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.30 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model