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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +4.04 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 3, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP