Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(13:15) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to BAL 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-D.Hester to BAL 26 for no gain (16-V.Mayle).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model