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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:29) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to DAL 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 37 for 21 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.00 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 75, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model