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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to WAS 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.49 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model