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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 32

Washington Commanders 20 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 3-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.84 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP