Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Washington Commanders 17

(6:05) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to WAS 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 32 for 5 yards (40-K.Brothers).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model