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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to WAS 31, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 32 for 1 yard (40-K.Brothers).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model