Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 62

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Washington Commanders 14

(10:09) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to WAS 21, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.67 EP
68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model