Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 20 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Houston Texans 24

(6:12) 3-B.Nortman punts 27 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.39 EP
78% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model