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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.72 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model