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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 74

Houston Texans 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to JAX 27, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-R.Greene to JAX 26 for -1 yards (34-T.Ervin). PENALTY on JAX-31-D.House, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at JAX 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model