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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 37

Houston Texans 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Hopkins.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.46 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP