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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 32

Houston Texans 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 8-N.Novak 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.56 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model