4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.50 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model