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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 18

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(5:20) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.97 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model