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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 80

Dallas Cowboys 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 18

What Actually Happened

(11:09) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to PIT 32, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at DAL 46 for 22 yards (6-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.04 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP