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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 18 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(13:17) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to DAL 11, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.38 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP