Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 18 – Dallas Cowboys 16

(3:41) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to DAL 12, Center-60-G.Warren. 13-L.Whitehead to PIT 49 for 39 yards (45-R.Nix).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.03 EP
67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model