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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 17 at the 28

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 18

What Actually Happened

(5:39) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.08 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model