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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

What Actually Happened

(:27) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to PIT 36, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.51 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 42, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model