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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

What Actually Happened

(3:17) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to PIT 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP