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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(4:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.01 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model