4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 89

Cleveland Browns 7 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(5:13) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 32 yards to CLE 43, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-39-E.Reynolds.

The Three Options

GO -3.49 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.16 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 89, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 46, worth -2.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model