Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(1:45) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to BAL 31, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 21-L.Webb pushed ob at BAL 41 for 10 yards (24-I.Campbell). PENALTY on BAL-91-M.Judon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.48 EP
63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model