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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 7

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.30 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 7, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP