4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to NYG 14, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.73 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP