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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 79

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to NYG 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 43-B.Rainey to NYG 35 for 8 yards (81-T.Kroft).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.74 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 36, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP