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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Giants 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(14:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 87-S.Shepard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.47 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.90 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model