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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 45

New York Giants 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to CIN 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CIN-21-D.Dennard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 10.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.14 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP