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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 76

New York Giants 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to CIN 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 33 for 8 yards (29-N.Berhe, 94-M.Herzlich).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.20 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model