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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 54

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:48) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 33 yards to CHI 21, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.98 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model