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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 77

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(2:46) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to CHI 33, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-E.Royal to CHI 32 for -1 yards (52-C.Lynch). PENALTY on CHI-49-S.Acho, Offensive Holding, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 33.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.77 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -2.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 34, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP