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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 68

Chicago Bears 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36

What Actually Happened

(4:39) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to TB 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.11 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model