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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 81

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to CHI 40, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.02 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 81, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP