Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – Chicago Bears 10

(1:59) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to CHI 5, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-E.Royal to CHI 2 for -3 yards (26-J.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.82 EP
65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model