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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 83

Chicago Bears 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(4:04) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to TB 40, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 41, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model