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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 85

Chicago Bears 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(11:28) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to TB 34, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-A.Humphries to TB 39 for 5 yards (31-C.Prosinski).

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model