4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 38

Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:32) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to TB 10, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-11-J.Bellamy.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP