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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:35) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.60 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model