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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 67

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to PHI 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.28 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP