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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 31

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Atlanta Falcons 15

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-C.Sturgis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.35 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model