4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Atlanta Falcons 15

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to ATL 20, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-52-N.Goode, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.39 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP