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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 36

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Atlanta Falcons 15

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 6-C.Sturgis 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.38 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model