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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 5-M.Bosher punts 50 yards to PHI 19, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-27-R.Therezie.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.68 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 27, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model