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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 25

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 3-M.Bryant 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.31 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model