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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to ATL 16, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 14-E.Weems to ATL 25 for 9 yards (28-W.Smallwood).

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.50 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP