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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 31

San Francisco 49ers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 4-P.Dawson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.31 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model