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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 23 – New Orleans Saints 38

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NO 24, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model