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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 37

New Orleans Saints 31 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.35 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model